With the fastest tightening cycle in history through the past 2 years, the expectation was the labor market would start to show signs of slack and the economy would begin to slow.
Based on recent employment and payroll numbers, the labor market has yet to show signs of deteriorating.
The JOLTS (Jobs Opening Labor Turnover) report, released last week, estimates that about 8.79 million open jobs were available in the United States in November.
The chart below shows the Indeed Job Postings Index by sector. Traditional 9-5 office job postings in finance, software, and hospitality are all below. Hospital/health care roles (Nursing and Physicians & Surgeons) remain elevated but are showing signs of weakening.
Job openings are coming down, suggesting the labor market is weakening. However, It is still much higher than anything seen by COVID, so the labor market is still very strong.
Indeed.com, the popular job posting site, publishes an index that shows the number of seasonally adjusted job postings relative to February 1, 2020, right before the economic shutdowns.